Flood forecasting and hydrological modelling
Theme leader: Dr. Jaap Schellekens
Flood forecasting is one of the areas in which hydrological models are used everyday and where the science behind the models is put to the ultimate real-life test.
However, many operational systems around the world have been in use for a long time as agencies tend to remain tied to their tried and trusted models.
In recent years it has become easier for operational agencies to ingest newly developed hydrological models as the software frameworks have become more flexible and have moved from a model centered approach to a data centered approach.
The DELFT-FEWS philosophy and software has been one of the most successful flexible forecasting frameworks and is currently running at a large number of operational agencies around the world.
As such there is now a large number of systems in which the current (lumped conceptual) hydrological 'work horses' can be replaced by a new generation of models that take the spatial distribution of hydrological processes into account.
Within the VUA Critical Zone Hydrology group new hydrological modelling concepts are being developed and tested with field measurements to validate the representation of individual processes.
The wflow_sbm model concept (part of the open streams project) is based on the detailed processed-based model cqflow and is now being tested in the Rhine basin and in the Citarum basin in Indonesia.
The aim of the Flood Forecasting theme within the Amsterdam Critical Zone Hydrology group's research is to continue to put our newly found understanding of hydrological processes to the test in operational systems in order to improve the predictions.
This also includes the use of tracers to further improve our understanding of the processes underlying flood generation.
Publications
- Price, D., Hudson, K., Boyce, G., Schellekens, J., Moore, R. J., Clark, P., Connolly, E., Pilling, C. and Harrison, T. (2012) Operational use of a grid-based model for flood forecasting, Proceedings of the ICE - Water Management, 165(2), 65-77, doi:10.1680/wama.2012.165.2.65.
- Werner, M., Schellekens, J., Gijsbers, P., van Dijk, M., van den Akker, O. and Heynert, K. (2012) The Delft-FEWS flow forecasting system, Environmental Modelling & Software, in press.
- Schellekens, J., Weerts, A. H., Moore, R. J., Pierce, C. E. and Hildon, S. (2011) The use of MOGREPS ensemble rainfall forecasts in operational flood forecasting systems across England and Wales, Advances in Geosciences 29, 77-84.
- Schellekens, J., Moore, R. J., Cole, S. J., Reggiani, P., Weerts, A. H., Minett, A. R. J., Bell, V. A. and Robson, A. J. (2010) Hydrological modelling using convective scale rainfall modelling, Research Contractors: Deltares and CEH Wallingford. Environment Agency, Bristol, U.K.
- Weerts, A. H., Schellekens, J. and Sperna Weiland, F. (2010) Real-Time Geospatial Data Handling and Forecasting: Examples From Delft-FEWS Forecasting Platform/System, IEEE J. Sel. Top. Appl. Earth Observations Remote Sensing 3(3), 386-394, doi:10.1109/JSTARS.2010.2046882.
- Werner, M., Cranston, M., Harrison, T., Whitfield, D. and Schellekens, J. (2009) Recent developments in operational flood forecasting in England, Wales and Scotland, Meteorological Applications 16(1), 13-22, doi:10.1002/met.124.
- Reggiani, P. and Schellekens, J. (2005) Rainfall-runoff modelling: distributed models, in Encyclopedia of Hydrological Sciences, pp. 1967-1984, Wiley.
- Werner, M. G. F., Schellekens, J. and Kwadijk, J. C. J. (2005) Flood early warning systems for hydrological (sub) catchments, Encyclopedia of Hydrological Sciences, 1, 349-364.
- Reggiani, P. and Schellekens, J. (2003) Modelling of hydrological responses: the representative elementary watershed approach as an alternative blueprint for watershed modelling, Hydrological Processes, 17, 3785-3789, 3.
- Weerts, A. H., Diermanse, F., Reggiani, P., Werner, M., van Dijk, M. and Schellekens, J. (2003) Assessing and quantifying the combined effect of model parameter and boundary uncertainties in model based flood forecasting [online].
Last modified: Wed Dec 30 12:34:15 CET 2015
